Newsletter September 22, 2022

No, Politics isn’t Replacing Religion

Daniel A. Cox

Neither is Spirituality, Science, or Work

One of the most interesting aspects of Pew’s new report “ Modeling the Future of Religion in America,” is how little comment the findings generated. According to Pew, America’s religious future does not include many fewer Christians. They project the number of Christians living in the US to drop to about half the total population or plummet to one-third over the next five decades. A society in which only one of every three Americans is Christian is almost unrecognizable today, and yet it remains a distinct possibility. 

It’s one of eight scenarios Pew lays out in an attempt to predict the transformation of American religion over the next half-century. There are several variables at play—including the pace of disaffiliation, religious retention, birth rates, and patterns of immigration—all of which provide unique sources of volatility and variation. 

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