Newsletter February 19, 2026

Lies, Damn Lies, and Dating Statistics

Daniel A. Cox

In the weeks leading up to Valentine’s Day, I received a steady stream of email pitches featuring dating-related research. They included research on the states with the highest rates of infidelity (sorry Colorado!), the most desired body types on OnlyFans, and the share of Americans who require consent before receiving a hug (one in three, apparently). There was even one offering aphrodisiac cocktail recipes. Partly, this is the result of some marketing professionals realizing that I research and write about dating and relationships. But the proliferation of this type of research is also an inevitable consequence of lowering barriers to entry. Today, as more methodologically rigorous research has become much more expensive, it is possible to conduct a “survey” with minimal resources and zero expertise. There are now DIY survey tools that allow any user to run their own study. Even before AI, we were producing research of dubious quality and limited use.

This introduces two related problems.

First, the raft of statistics on every conceivable topic undercuts the creation of a shared understanding of the world. Instead, we have a multiplicity of competing narratives, each supported by a recent study or new finding. The second problem is that polling research loses the power to surprise us, to challenge rather than confirm our beliefs. Every conceivable viewpoint can be validated with a cherry-picked ‘polling’ result. This can lead to outlier opinions taking on more central roles in shaping public perceptions, giving outsized weight to quirky perspectives. Put a bit more bluntly: Our understanding of the world is warped by weird people. On Substack, there are lots of people writing about dating, sex, and relationships—but many (most?) of these writers have quite distinctive beliefs, values, or experiences. That’s what makes them interesting and fun to read! But viral social media posts, engrossing Substack essays, and wacky statistics are not reliable reflections of reality. Reality tends to be kind of boring, nuanced, and complex. This is certainly true of dating experiences—the median date is more “meh” than anything else.

But boring is a tough sell, and I’m hardly immune to wanting to encourage public engagement. But in all the writing and research that I’ve done, I try to acknowledge contradictions and inconsistencies where and when they emerge. Our research is not the last word on these topics, but we go to great lengths to provide a comprehensive understanding of an issue and be transparent in both what we find and how the research was conducted. (We release published reports, including complete toplines of the survey questionnaires, and provide access to the raw data.)

Not every finding is revelatory. It often happens that we find what we expect. But the joy in this work comes from the capacity to be surprised. So, in that spirit, I pulled some notable findings from recent research that both confirm and challenge some established narratives about dating and relationships.

Online Dating is Worse for Men (Or Women?)

I’ve seen arguments that online dating is uniquely difficult for average men who tend to be ignored. That men struggle more than women to attract romantic attention is almost certainly true. The Pew Research Center found that nearly two-thirds of men dating online felt insecure because of how few matches they received, while only 40 percent of women said the same. Conversely, most women reported feeling overwhelmed because of the attention they received on these platforms. Is the discrepancy in attention driven by women’s focus on the few users with the most attractive qualities? Possibly. But we shouldn’t discount the simple fact that men are more active on dating platforms than women. In 2025, the polling firm SSRS found that 57 percent of Americans using online dating platforms were men and only 38 percent were women. There is variability across platforms and regions, but that ratio significantly disadvantages men. So, men must have considerably more negative experiences than women dating online, right?

Not really.

We found that men, particularly college-educated men, are most likely to have positive experiences with online dating. Although men are nearly twice as likely to say online dating has made them less confident, a majority say their overall experience has been positive. But this is far less true for men without college degrees. Nearly two-thirds of college-educated men have had a positive experience dating online, compared to less than half of men without degrees.

Do Women End Most Relationships?

This is one you have probably seen cited if you spend any time reading relationship or dating content. Women initiate the majority of all divorces. This widely cited finding is based on an academic study conducted by sociologist Michael Rosenfeld, who traced the relationship status of couples from 2009 to 2015. He found that nearly 70 percent of divorces during this period were initiated by women.

We updated this research in 2021 and found that while the gender gap remained, it was not quite as stark. What’s more, our research revealed a notable perception gap, with both men and women more likely to believe they initiated the breakup rather than their partner. Two-thirds of women whose marriage ended said they were the one who made the decision, while less than one-third of men believe it was their former spouse who made the decision. Most men said the decision was mutual or that they were the ones driving it.

Men, Women, and Friendship

Platonic relationships between men and women have been a source of enduring fascination––and skepticism for some. Plenty of romantic comedies have featured male and female friends who eventually develop romantic interest—When Harry Met Sally being perhaps the most popular example. The blurring of platonic and romantic lines is hardly limited to films. Despite Internet criticisms of women who keep men in the “friend-zone,” dating your friends is fairly common. In fact, young women are more likely to date their friends today than in previous generations of women. Half of young women report that they were friends with their current partner before becoming a couple, compared to only 20 percent of older women.

This finding is particularly noteworthy given the overall decline in socializing among young adults. Americans have fewer close friends than they once did, but it’s not clear that cross-gender friendships are less common than they once were. Although single men have fewer friends than single women, their relationship networks include more members of the opposite sex. Notably, married women have the most homogenous friendship groups—nearly half have exclusively female friends.

How Does Physical Attractiveness Influence Partner Selection and Relationship Satisfaction?

Dating apps are great at optimizing for superficial qualities in partner selection. This has led to some speculation as to whether women are increasingly basing dating decisions on physical appearance, an attribute historically prioritized more by men. There’s not much reliable evidence that women are becoming more discerning in this way. Pew found that among online daters, women were more likely than men to report that it was difficult to find someone they were attracted to. In terms of physical attributes, our research shows that most single women are less interested in dating people shorter than themselves, but given that women are 5 inches shorter than men on average, that does not seem like an unreasonable standard. What’s more, height matters less to women than other attributes, such as a partner’s employment status or personal habits (such as smoking).

Even with online dating, most couples rate their partners as being roughly as attractive as they are. Women in relationships are somewhat more likely than men to say they are the more attractive partner. What bearing does this have on relationship satisfaction? It turns out it’s different for men and women. Our research shows that men with more attractive partners are more satisfied in their relationships than women with more attractive partners. But notably, for both men and women, believing that you are the more attractive partner is associated with lower relationship satisfaction.

Read More on American Storylines